COLUMN: Think Again – Good timing matters in politics

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/06/2024 (324 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The federal Conservatives have a commanding lead in public opinion polls. If this continues, the Conservatives are virtually certain to win the next election.

Naturally, Canadians are curious about the man who seems destined to become prime minister. Andrew Lawton’s recent biography, Pierre Poilievre: A Political Life, provides readers with a helpful overview of Pierre Poilievre’s life to this point.

What stood out to me is the extent to which Poilievre understands the importance of timing in politics. Poilievre started out as a protégé of Reform Party leader Preston Manning and cut his teeth working in the office of Calgary Southeast MP and future Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. He also backed Manning’s efforts to unite small-c conservatives in a new political party—the Canadian Alliance.

However, while Poilievre appreciated Manning’s work over the years, he backed Stockwell Day’s bid to become leader of the Canadian Alliance. Poilievre understood that Manning had taken the party as far as he could. It was time for a new leader and Day won that race handily.

Although Day picked up some additional seats in the 2000 election, he failed to significantly expand the Canadian Alliance’s base of support. As a result, Day lost the party leadership to Stephen Harper. Shortly after taking over, Harper negotiated a merger with the Progressive Conservatives, something that Poilievre also supported.

In 2004, Poilievre, who was only 25 at the time, ran for the Conservative Party in the Nepean-Carleton riding in the Ottawa area. He saw that Canadians were growing tired of the Liberals and that the Conservatives were gaining momentum under Harper’s leadership. While the Conservatives fell short of forming government in 2004, Poilievre managed to win his seat.

Naturally, Poilievre was thrilled two years later when the Conservatives formed government after the 2006 election. While Poilievre was not immediately named to cabinet, his work ethic impressed Harper, who eventually named him Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister. In 2013, Poilievre entered cabinet as secretary of state for parliamentary reform.

After the Conservatives lost government in 2015, Poilievre threw himself into his role as an opposition critic. Poilievre also took this opportunity to improve his social media skills and acquired a significant following.

Interestingly, Poilievre remained neutral in the 2017 leadership race that resulted in his long-time friend Andrew Scheer becoming Conservative leader. When Scheer was forced to step down after losing the 2019 federal election, Poilievre seriously considered running for leader himself. He had a campaign team ready to go, but he backed out at the last minute, feeling that the timing wasn’t quite right.

That was a wise decision.

By the time Erin O’Toole was elected party leader in late 2020, the world was in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was a miserable time in politics and O’Toole found himself unable to unite the different factions of his party. In the end, the caucus voted no-confidence in O’Toole and a new leadership race began. This time Poilievre threw his hat in the ring.

Fortunately for Poilievre, the political climate of 2022 was considerably different than the climate of 2020. Canadians were sick of pandemic restrictions and Trudeau’s divisive policies. Poilievre spoke the language of the common people and he was not afraid to challenge the mainstream media on a whole host of issues.

As a result, Poilievre won the Conservative Party leadership decisively on the first ballot. He quickly united the caucus behind him and appears poised to win the next federal election.

At every step along the way, Pierre Poilievre has shown an impressive understanding of political timing. This is going to serve him well in the months and years ahead.

Michael Zwaagstra is a high school teacher and a Steinbach city councillor. He can be reached at mzwaagstra@shaw.ca.